When Math Mattered – Part Deux Amended
By Julien B. Booth
January 9, 2020
Happy New Year:
I hope you are doing well.
For the past few months, I have been troubled with the destruction of finance (as I knew it). The actions of the Central Banks have changed the rules of the game in the entirety.
Once upon a time, a real, risk-free rate of return was the basis for ALL capital markets decisions. Apparently, that just ain’t so anymore. “You just cannot fight the people that make the money”.
The following quote is from Mark Grant – a sage of the capital markets for 40+ years. I think his words perfectly capture the reality of 2019 and future of 2020:
One focus then, in 2020, is going to be on the central banks. Will the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China, and then the Fed, continue to ramp up their balance sheets and buy more sovereign and corporate debt?
The unfolding answer will determine bond yields, and the equity market’s performance, more than any other single factor, in my opinion.
There is nothing, and I mean nothing, more important than what the central banks are going to do as they are the major driver of all of the markets, these days. Like it or lump it, you can’t fight the people that make the money. You cannot win that game and your investment decisions should be set accordingly.
“I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we even consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.” -Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell
So, there you have it. Right from the mouth of the man himself. React accordingly!
Acceptance of this fact is required. It is hard to let go of the truth (corp. earnings, economic numbers etc.), especially when reality makes so little sense. Diluting the money supply is an almost guaranteed way to pump up markets, fundamentals are damned!
Do not fear – we are and have been, positioned accordingly to protect, preserve, and grow your capital.
We appreciate the opportunity to work for you.
Once Upon A Time – Company Profits Mattered…